Courtesy o' Martini Boy, The Horserace Blog has done some interesting research on
county voter registrations, and it doesn't look good for Kerry.
The thing the Strib continuously ignores in its rush to define
Minnesota in Garrison Keillor terms is the massive demographic shift
that's been going on since the mid-90's. According to the Strib,
there's still great respect for the Scandahoovian Liberal way, and of
course we'll all respect that great liberal tradition and vote
accordingly. Despite the fact we have a very
conservative Republican governor. Despite the fact that the majority of
our House representation is Republican. Despite the fact that Normy-Boy
Coleman bitchslapped Walter Mondale (the Walter Mondale. Former
VP. You know who I'm talking about) to become Senator after Wellstone
died. Wellstone's memorial service did the DFL no favors in that
election, either. The facts are there for anyone who cares to look. The
place is going conservative. It's happening and has been happening. Are
my findings of a scientific nature? Nope. They're strictly the product
of my observations. Look at the most recent poll conducted
by that pillar of journalism, The Star Tribune. If Minnesota is really
as liberal as the Strib and everyone else would have us believe, well,
why is Bush within seven points? I think it's an exceedingly fair
question, given what the nation believes about Minnesota's political
views and given the last two elections, where Republicans have
succeeded over DFL guys they wouldn't have beaten ten years before. To
be fair, the Strib has admitted that Minnesota is in play, but
still...the editorial endorsements will, generally speaking, be DFL
across the board, and I guaran-frickin'-tee you that in at least one
endorsement, probably the one for Kerry, they will blather on about the
great Scandahoovian liberal tradition that is Minnesota's and will
suggest that people vote according to that tradtion, because it's our own.
Maybe twenty years ago it was our own. Not anymore. While I'm not
discounting the fact that redistricting has been kind to Republicans,
seats were shifting right before the Legislature got its hands on the
census reports. Jesse Ventura, while still to the left of Norm Coleman,
nonetheless beat out the uberliberal Skip Humphrey (yeah, he's Hubert's
kid)for governor in 1998. To my mind, Mark Dayton's election to the
senate in 2000 is an abberation because he outspent Rod Grams by
millions of dollars. And I mean millions of dollars. You couldn't turn
the damn TV on without seeing an ad for Mark Dayton. It was disgusting.
Moving along, if Wellstone had lived, my gut feeling is that he would
have been reelected, but by a very small margin that would have been
chalked up to the incumbent factor and not because he convinced anyone
that he was the best man for the job. Normy Boy's a popular creature
here in the Cities, and he ran a great campaign in 2002. But what's
more is that, even though he's a Republican, he genuinely appeals to
conservative Democrats. After all, he used to be one. What's surprising
about his success, though, is that he never suffered for his
switcheroo. Everyone kept bleating on about how he would pay and he
never did. If Jesse hadn't appealed to so many 18-24 year-olds, well,
it's very possible he would have been governor. Norm came in second in
that very close race. But, like I said, none of this really means
anything because they're just my observations, but still...the
evidence, once you look at it rationally, adds up. It's tight now, and
it's going to get tighter. I'm going to be the only person in the state
of Minnesota who's not
surprised if Bush takes it. I genuinely think it could happen. If it
does happen, it will be by a few thousand votes and not a few hundred.
Such a defeat will leave a mark on the DFL'ers and will force people to realize that---duh---Minnesota's going conservative.