Ok, the numbers on this one aren't matching up.
To wit:
VIENNA (Reuters) - Nearly 380 tons of explosives are missing from a site near Baghdad that was part of Saddam Hussein dismantled atom bomb program but was never secured by the U.S. military, the United Nations said Monday. {...} One substance found in large quantities at the Al Qaqaa facility was the explosive HMX, which Fleming said had "a potential use in a nuclear explosive device as a detonator." Prior to the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, the HMX had been sealed and tagged with the IAEA emblem while being stored at Al Qaqaa. Iraq was permitted to keep some of its explosives for mining purposes after the IAEA completed its dismantling of Saddam's covert nuclear weapons program after the 1991 Gulf war. Fleming said HMX also had civilian and conventional military applications. In the months prior to the second Gulf war, the IAEA was certain that none of the dual-use materials were being used in a nuclear weapons program.Keep in mind the amount 380 tons.
Now, if you go researching and find El-Baradei's statement to the Security Council of January 9, 2003, the story is a wee bit different:
The relocation and consumption of some dual use materials has been among the questions raised in connection with Iraq's backlog of semi-annual declarations. The high explosive "HMX" is a prime example of such material. The removal of Agency seals on the HMX and the declared relocation and consumption of some of the HMX must be explained and documented by Iraq before the Agency can reach a conclusion with regard to the use of such material. The Iraqi declarations indicate that out, of the 228 tonnes of HMX available in Iraq at the end of 1998, 196 remained at the facility where the HMX was previously under IAEA seal. Iraq also declared that it had blended the remaining 32 tonnes with sulphur and turned them into 45.6 tonnes of "industrial explosive" provided mainly to cement plants for mining. The material balance, current stock, whereabouts and final use of such material are currently being investigated.The numbers don't match up. How can 380 tons of nuclear weapon-compatible explosive have been stolen, when before the invasion, the IAEA claimed there were only 196 tons of HMX? And that was down from 228 tons in all of Iraq, or so they claim, in 1998, because the Iraqis had mixed 32 tons for commercial blasting purposes.
This really doesn't add up, does it?
El-Baradei used the same numbers in a subsequent report to the Security Council.
2. HMX 53. The relocation and consumption of HMX (a high explosive of potential use in nuclear weapons), as described in Iraq's backlog of semi-annual declarations, has been investigated by the IAEA. In those declarations, Iraq stated that, between 1998 and 2002, it had transferred 32 of the 228 tonnes of HMX which had been under IAEA seal as of December 1998 to other locations. In addition, Iraq stated that a very small quantity (46 kg) of HMX had been used at munitions factories for research and development. At the request of the IAEA, Iraq has provided further clarification on the movement and use of the HMX. In that clarification, Iraq indicated that the 32 tonnes of HMX had been blended with sulphur to produce industrial explosives and provided mainly to cement plants for quarrying, and that the research and development using the small quantity of HMX had been in the areas of personnel mines, explosives in civilian use, missile warhead filling and research on tanks. 54. IAEA inspectors have been able to verify and re-seal the remaining balance of approximately 196 tonnes of HMX, most of which has remained at the original storage location. The movement of the blended HMX and the other small quantity of HMX has also been documented by Iraq. However, it has not been possible to verify the use of those materials, as all of it is said to have been consumed through explosions and there are no immediately available technical means for verifying such uses. The IAEA will continue to investigate means of verifying the Iraqi statements about the use of the HMX and blended HMX.
The numbers about
the amount of HMX never changed. Let me correct that: 46 kg of HMX was
deducted from the 196 tons because the Iraqis fessed up to using some
for munitions research. But 46Kg here or there doesn't really make a
dent when you're talking about 196 tons of explosive, does it?
The numbers essentially stayed the same---all before the run-up to the
invasion. Don't believe me? Go through all of the IAEA's daily reports
and see if you can find something to indicate that instead of there
being only 196 tons of HMX, there were actually 380. Go ahead. I dare you.
Yet we're supposed to believe that 380 tons of HMX has gone missing.
Explain that one to me, would you? Because you know what this means if
the the 380 ton assessment is correct, right? It means Saddam and his
cronies, between 1998 and 2002, when the inspections resumed, were
acquiring nuclear-grade explosive material. And how, precisely, does
that square with El-Baradei's claim that Iraq wasn't reeestablishing
his nuclear weapons program? The dual-use purpose of HMX doesn't really
fly once you take the numbers into account. Because, after all, Saddam
had no need to purchase more HMX for blasting purposes because he'd
already raided the stash he had for precisely that purpose. Which, of course, means that---shocker---there were WMD's and the case for war was, indeed, justified.
UPDATE: It might help if I learned how to, you know, read.
There's other types of explosives missing besides the HMX. I'm a dolt.
I'm doing a big take back. You'd think I should have known better than
to trust a Reuters wire article.