...That the Saudis have finally

...That the Saudis have finally gotten with the program?

This seems to indicate, that yes, they have.

"We will not allow a corrupt group led by deviant thought to violate the security and stability of this land," King Fahd, Saudi's ailing ruler, told the opening of the Saudi consultative Shura Council on Sunday in comments on official agency SPA. "The real Muslim has nothing to do with these actions and has no sympathy for those who carry them out," he added. Late on Saturday, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah warned the militants: "We tell this deviant group and others that if they do not return to the right path, they will meet the same fate (as Muqrin) or worse." State television showed the militants' corpses and blamed them for a wave of violence against foreigners in the Gulf state, a key U.S. ally and the world's biggest oil exporter.

Note that this was said on Saudi State Television, aka the Propaganda Channel, which, it was reported last week, ran reports that the Zionists were responsible for attacks on westerners. So, there's hope, until you read this article.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - The al-Qaida group responsible for beheading an American engineer said sympathizers in the Saudi security forces provided police uniforms and cars used during the victim's kidnapping, according to an Islamic extremist Web site Sunday. The account of the abduction of Paul M. Johnson Jr., who was later decapitated, highlighted the fears expressed by some diplomats and Westerners in the kingdom that militants have infiltrated Saudi security forces — a possibility Saudi officials have denied. The article recounting the abduction appeared in Sawt al-Jihad, or Voice of the Holy War, a semimonthly Internet periodical posted by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula — the group that claimed responsibility for killing Johnson. According to the account, militants wearing police uniforms and using police cars set up a fake checkpoint June 12 on al-Khadma Road, leading to the airport, near Imam Mohammed bin Saud University. "A number of the cooperators who are sincere to their religion in the security apparatus donated those clothes and the police cars. We ask God to reward them and that they use their energy to serve Islam and the mujahedeen," the article read. When Johnson's car approached the checkpoint, the militants stopped it, detained him, anesthetized him and carried him to another car, the article said. Earlier Saudi newspaper reports said Johnson was drugged during the kidnapping.

Just because Al-Qaeda says it's true is no reason to believe it, but it's hauntingly plausible to think that they've infiltrated the security services. What's ironic here, is that the western companies have the power here to make the House of Saud stand up and take notice. If they evacuate all of their workers, the already shitty Saudi infrastructure will collapse entirely. Western workers are the load bearing wall that props up the Saudi economy. You pull that wall down and the economy will come crashing down. But can the US afford to let the House of Saud fall just yet? The answer, unfortunately, is no. The oil will keep the companies and their workers there. Not to mention the defense contractors.

But will Westerner business persons ultimately be driven out? Afshin Molavi, a fellow at the New America Foundation, said, "It's almost unthinkable that the U.S. would withdraw entirely. I could see many workers leaving the kingdom, but it's such a rich relationship for so many defense contractors and oil companies that they'll do whatever they can to stay in." He added, "I think what's important to remember about Saudi Arabia is that they really are the oil price setters. They are the central backbone of oil production, and they've usually used this ability -- because they're the only ones with significant spare capacity -- and they can raise the prices of oil if they cut back production, or lower it if they increase production." He added that the reason the world has seen high oil prices has been a fear premium based on fears of instability, and because of an increase in Chinese demand. Most OPEC producers are producing at or near capacity. Only Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have surpluses. "When you think of Saudi Arabia, you have to think of oil prices. They have a quarter of the world's proven oil reserves. We could probably survive $70- to $80-dollar barrels for a little while, but the poorest countries wouldn't be able to survive," Molavi said. "Will defense contractors lose money? Yeah. Will oil companies lose some money if they leave Saudi Arabia? Yeah. But the real danger is the price on oil. "I could see engineers leaving, I could see companies leaving. ... I would think that unless it got much worse, some of these companies would still try to keep a bare-bones staff. ... There are American companies there even beyond the defense and oil. There are something like 71 McDonalds, there's Starbucks. American cars sell very well in Saudi Arabia. You have these trading relationships that I think will go on unabated."

Ultimately we have a situation where western workers are being used as tools to pry apart the House of Saud. But their companies can't protect them more than they already have; they cannot say "enough is enough" and pull them without risking a complete and utter downfall of a corrupt government, which while it has its serious downsides, is still better than an Islamic fundamentalist government like Iran's. Iran doesn't play ball; Saudi Arabia does. And while I'm not a big fan of Saudi Arabia, it's obvious they're not as bad as they could be. It could be worse, to our point of view, and that's precisely what Al-Qaeda wants us to know. We're stuck dancing with the guy who brung us, even if he's going to get some of our number killed in the meantime, because ditching him isn't an option. A rather clever plan, don't you think, if you look at it objectively? It may sound cold-hearted but it is fairly clever. They're forcing the Saudis to act, and they have acted. But it could be argued that by cracking down, they've only given more power to the terrorists and further increased an ulready unstable political system possessed of a highly disenfranchised and unhappy populace. The answer to the situation would be for the Saudis to let their people have what they want---democracy---which would effectively disenfranchise the terrorists. But it would also disenfranchise the House of Saud, and that's not something anyone in the ruling family would like to happen anytime in the near future. What's my point with all of this? Hell if I know. I'm frightened that more guest workers in Saudi will be killed just like Paul Johnson was killed. I'm also frightened that US companies like Lockheed Martin will eventually pull the plug on their operations in Saudi Arabia and that country will be thrown into chaos. Which is not something we can afford right now. And right now is the optimal phrase there. Iraq's not steady enough on its feet to be our best friend in the region. And make no mistake about it: Iraq was liberated, in part, to give the Saudis a big warning. But, of course, this situation, in the future, will have it's own particular brand of 9/11 hindsight attached to it, and it will be wondered why we did business with these people for such a long period of time. Well, there's no easy answer, unfortunately, and hindsight is always about the easy answer. This situation is the proverbial space between the rock and the hard place, and no one's getting out of this one unbruised. Posted by Kathy at June 1, 2004 09:10 PM | TrackBack